Making Futures Work Kędzierzyn-Koźle

Learn how to get started with Futures Thinking. With this practical guide, Phil Balagtas, founder of the Design Futures Initiative and the global Speculative Futures network, shows you how designers and futurists have made futures work at companies such as Atari, IBM, Apple, Disney, Autodesk, Lufthansa, and McKinsey & Company. This book demystifies the process of Futures Thinking into a language thats practical and useful for both designers and strategists. Youll learn about Strategic Foresight for using ideas about the future to anticipate and prepare for change; explore Speculative Design to deal with the relationship between science, technology, and humans; and Design Fiction to explore and critique possible futures. Balagtas also shares stories from his journey to build a global community and describes how he works with clients to reshape the futures vocabulary. With this guide, youll learn how to: Prepare your client, team, and/or audience for futures Facilitate and work with the fundamental methods and frameworks Gain advocacy and support within your organization Provide measurable value from the process and outcomes Build a futures culture and team Sustain a culture and support system beyond projects Spis treści: Foreword Preface Who This Book Is For Format of the Book Methods Stories from the Field Terminology OReilly Online Learning How to Contact Us Acknowledgments 1. A Fascination with the Future Survival of the Fittest Meteorology Mapping the Unknown Imagining the Future In Closing 2. A Primer on Process and Approach Stage 0: Preparing for Futures Work Understanding Your Audience The Futures Mindset Framing the Problem Framing the Project Stage 1: Strategic Foresight Trends and Futures Intelligence Analyzing Trends Scenarios and Implications Stage 2: Designing Futures Types of Futures Design Designing the Ideation Workshop Stage 3: Designing Strategy Planning for Strategy Measuring Success Integrating and Advocating for Futures in an Organization 1. Preparing for Futures Work 3. Understanding Your Audience The Diagnostic Situational Awareness Why Does Your Audience Want to Look into the Future, and What Are Their Goals? What Kind of Project Will Futures Be Applied To? How Are They Doing Short- and Long-Term Strategies? And Who Is in Charge of That Function Today? What Has or Hasnt Worked in the Past? How Much Do They Know About Futures Thinking? Who Are Your Potential Allies or Skeptics? What or Who Are the Potential Barriers or Threats to the Success of the Project? How Open Is the Organization to Change, Innovation, or Wild Ideas? What Are the Vocabulary and Artifacts They Are Using for Strategy Today? How Do They Think About the Future Today? Methods for Situational Awareness Sailboat Exercise SWOT Premortem Canvases Causal Layered Analysis In Closing 4. The Futures Mindset A Mindset and an Attitude Explain the Characteristics of a Futurist The Future Is Always VUCA The Futures Cone Analogies of a Journey Recognize and Embrace Fears and Failures The Futures Triangle The Weight of the Past The Pull of the Future The Push of the Present Show Relevant and Appropriate Examples In Closing 5. Framing the Problem Focusing Your Research The Focal Issue Time Horizon Geography/Region Stakeholders Demographics/Population Segment Domain Maps Problem Framing Canvases In Closing 6. Framing the Project Project Logistics Map Out the Project Timeline and Budget Plan Your Key Activities Secure Your Allies and Champions Align on the Deliverables Set Up Workspaces, Repositories, and Communication Preferences Determine Process Success Metrics Organizing Your Team Product or Project Manager Designers Strategists and Analysts Trend Researchers/Analysts Researchers Domain Experts Marketing and Communications Members Versus Collaborators Versus Allies In Closing 2. Strategic Foresight 7. Fundamentals of Foresight Strategic Foresight World Building Horizon Scanning Historical Analysis Bill Sharpes Three Horizons Futures Intelligence Using STEEP as a Multivariate Lens Trends, Drivers, and Signals Types of trends Quantitative versus qualitative intelligence Prioritizing Trends and Other Futures Intelligence Probability Versus Impact Matrix In Closing 8. World Building with Scenarios Scenario Formats Narratives Illustrated Images and Scenes Immersive and Interactive Experiences Jim Dators Scenario Archetypes The Axes of Uncertainty Future Personas Implication Mapping Sequencing Methods In Closing 3. Designing Futures 9. Designing Futures Speculative Design Types and Formats of Futures Design Critical Design Design Fiction Science Fiction Prototyping Speculative Design for Discourse and Strategy Using Speculative Design for Provocation, Discourse, Critique, or Debate Using Speculative Design for Strategy Prototyping the Future Today In Closing 10. Designing the Ideation Workshop Preparing for the Workshop Collect and Prepare Your Research Artifacts for Ideation Pre-reads In-workshop reminders Identify Who Will Be Participating and Prepare Them for the Session Design the Ideation Experience (Selecting the Methods) Ideation Methods Rapid Ideation Prompts Narrative-Based Prompts Headlines and Stories from the Future Immersive Experiences Using Illustrations for Future Visioning Using Generative AI Tools for Future Visioning In Closing 4. Designing Strategy 11. Strategy Preparing for Strategy Planning for the Activities Try to Use What Is Already in Place to Measure Success Determine Whether New Metrics Are Necessary Invite the Appropriate Stakeholders Choose the Frameworks or Methods Youll Use for Planning Backcasting Long-Term, Medium-Term, and Short-Term Planning McKinseys Three Horizons Jump-Starting Innovation Measuring Success Innovation Accounting Indicator Monitoring Implementation and Delivery In Closing 12. Integrating Futures into Your Organization From the Inside Youll Be the First to Introduce Futures to Your Team or Organization Deliver a presentation Find supporters and champions Invite an external speaker Distribute or post inspiration internally Have a lunch meeting (brown-bag it) Conduct a workshop Advocate for a project Use a method on a current project Youve Established Some Support Within Your Group or Team and Want to Introduce Futures to Other Groups Within the Organization Youre Hired to Lead a Team or to Be Part of a Team That Is or Will Be Intentionally Practicing Futures A Strategic Function or Business Unit Already Exists That May or May Not Use Futures, and You Would Like to Collaborate or Introduce It to Them From the Outside You Are Hired Specifically to Use Futures on a Project Youre Hired to Train an Organization or Team An Organization Is Curious About Futures and Is Asking You to Introduce the Topic Where and Why Futures Succeeds or Fails How Futures Fail (Collapse Scenarios) Change or loss of leadership Focus on survival Lack of funding Competition with current strategic processes Refusal of other business units to adopt the plan Disintegration of excitement or change in interests Overly complex or dogmatic processes or practitioners How Futures Succeeds (Transformational Scenarios) Strategic leadership that is invested in long-term thinking Teams that are interested in more strategic thinking Innovation and growth initiatives Long product cycles A product or service intent on large-scale change In Closing Afterword Next Steps: Continuing Your Journey Apply Futures Thinking to Your Own Life Complementary Approaches New Responsibilities Glossary Index